Additional Bailout Thoughts
So, the bailout bill passed the Senate last night. I admit that I’ve reconsidered my anti-bailout position. It has nothing to do with stock market plunges. Instead my reconsideration is based on the difficulty of obtaining credit.
Rock solid small and medium businesses live and die by credit and very short term loan-like agreements. As someone just stated, a good analogy would be credit cards. All of us who use credit cards basically agree to loans. Well, companies use similar vehicles to maintain smooth monthly cash flow that enable transactions such as meeting payroll.
If banks no longer trust each other or customers to pay back loans, then they’re not going to do make loans. If the system of trust - and that’s what all of this really is - a giant system of trust - collapses, then everything will grind to a bloody devastating halt.
Because of this, I have just sent Alaska’s one and only congressman an email encouraging him to vote for the bailout.
Going forward, it is quite clear that regulatory regimes will need to be revamped. Trillions of dollars were leveraged 30 to 1, massive credit swaps, all of which contributed to the biggest pyramid scheme of all time. Speaking as someone who labors under SOX regulations everyday, I know how onerous stupid regulations can be. But a well designed and enforced structure needs to be implemented so that our economy is no longer a giant Ponzi scheme.
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I talked with my banker the other day and he said that people were calling him asking if they were still doing loans. We are not having problems because we use a home town conservative bank that knows us. I understand that not everyone has that advantage. And as a business owner I am fully aware that all that must happen to end me is for my customers not to be able to get credit. Or not to make money. Then they don’t need me, I don’t need my suppliers, they don’t need their employees, none of us pay our mortgages, etc, etc, etc. I don’t like the thought of the bailout but long soup lines are less appealing.